Is it possible that a “better” currency will replace Bitcoin? A more profitable and cheaper coin that destroys Bitcoin?
Let’s be honest: this is more about economy and less about convenience. This crypto currency would have to be much “better” to overcome the network effect and brand capital from which Bitcoin benefits today.
The fact that it hasn’t happened yet is crucial to the durability of Bitcoin. For governmental and economic reasons, a “universal” UN-backed crypto currency will not emerge within five years.
There is another way in which the economy could develop: If the price of electricity rises sharply, mining could become unprofitable. Only large pools, where electricity is relatively cheaper, would remain.
This is a difficult cost-security compromise. Bitcoin would have to find a way to lower the cost of security while maintaining the integrity of the account.
Scenario 7: Market fatigue
Probability (next 5 years): Low
Possible effects: Bitcoin becomes meaningless
If crypto startups in the real world do not deliver tangible value, people could slowly lose confidence in crypto currencies and tokens. (Something that happened during the bear market in 2015 and 2016).
In this case, the growth of the market could slow down and its value could eventually stabilise. The crypto market would lose its attractiveness from the investment point of view, leading to a further decline.
Personally, we believe that some crypto startups will eventually offer real added value. As the past has shown, the market is always able to rebound.